Generative AI is fixing to transform the pharmaceutical industry. However, not all adopters will reap rewards in comparable degrees.  

That’s because large companies will outspend smaller rivals by a lot. In the process, the dominant will gain an “enduring” competitive advantage over the rest of the field. 

The prediction is in a new report from S&P Global. 

Commenting on AI’s potential to speed development of new and improved drugs—one of the most hotly anticipated applications of the technology in the sector—the authors note the pace will be difficult to measure.

They point out the cycle from initial discovery to clinical trials to FDA approval to market presence currently takes an average 10 to 15 years. And they predict: Much of that process will not be compressed by AI.

Also of note in the report: 

Pharmaceutical companies have good reason to seek to obscure the contribution of AI to their drug development. Accurate information could provide competitors with insight into the success or failure of AI programs, enabling them to direct their own spending more efficiently.

Noting that the global pharmaceutical AI market has been forecast to close in on $22 billion by 2027—up from $1 billion in 2022—the authors state AI’s successful implementation at individual companies “is not assured and will be the result of investment, a willingness to adopt new processes and their ability to manage change.”

S&P expects the greatest benefits from AI projects will accrue to companies that share four traits: 

1. Endurance. 

AI partnerships and projects are on the rise in pharma. However, initiatives “remain predominantly early stage and characterized by the exploration of the possibilities of generative AI,” the authors write. More: 

Pharma AI endeavors will require the development and curation of large datasets and time to improve their precision.

2. Scalability. 

AI investment in pharma tends to be narrowly focused and limited in its applications, S&P Global observes. More: 

Generative AI will need to address a wider range of diseases and a greater number of activities in order to significantly contribute to health outcomes and create meaningful value for adopters.

3. Integration. 

Generative AI for pharma “will have to be combined with existing proprietary systems to optimally and efficiently drive improvements in research and manufacturing.” More: 

Companies that prove adept at that integration will reap the greatest competitive advantages.

4. Expertise. 

“While we believe that generative AI will improve R&D efficiency, it will not replace fundamental research lead by scientists,” S&P remarks, adding: 

Maximum synergies will thus rely on the combination of the technology and specialized human resources that prove capable of working together.

Embracing these four factors, and thus harnessing the potential of AI, will entail “a journey that is just starting for the pharmaceutical sector,” the authors write. “But the potential for improvement to treatments, processes and patients’ lives is already evident, and suggests that AI will have a significant and lasting role at the heart of the pharmaceutical industry.”

The report is available for downloading here.  

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Buzzworthy developments of the past few days.

• AI didn’t displace the nearly 3,000 people who just lost their jobs at CVS. That’s evident in the roles of the pink-slipped: Almost all are corporate positions. But the technology didn’t have nothing to do with the layoffs, either. CVS’s AI investments are “a key part of the strategic changes being made at the company,” a watcher at The HR Digest notes. “The organization has been looking into various avenues to incorporate AI into its business, including the replacement of call centers with AI customer support. The controversial strategy has been in discussion for some time now, and while it does not figure into CVS’ layoffs in 2024, we could see a bigger impact on the company’s workforce in upcoming years.” 
   
• Gavin Newsom could have signed the nation’s first law with real teeth for guardrailing large-scale AI. Instead, the California governor vetoed the bill. “While well-intentioned, [the bill] does not take into account whether an AI system is deployed in high-risk environments, involves critical decision-making or the use of sensitive data,” Newsom said in prepared remarks. “Instead, the bill applies stringent standards to even the most basic functions—so long as a large system deploys it. I do not believe this is the best approach to protecting the public from real threats posed by the technology.”
   
• Hospital leaders are skeptical of ROI boasts from digital health vendors. A new survey shows only 1 in 4 trusts such claims. And 60% say the vendors behind the pitches fall short more than half the time. The survey was conducted for Panda Health by Sage Growth Partners, which received responses from 75 CFOs, clinical leaders and key IT people. On a brighter note, close to two-thirds of the field said their implemented solutions met or exceeded their ROI expectations. The survey report is available in exchange for contact info. 
   
• Healthcare consumers are similarly wary about what’s in AI for them. Deloitte’s Center for Health Solutions found as much when it surveyed more than 2,000 people in the proverbial street. Some 30% said they “don’t trust the information” on health and wellness from, specifically, GenAI tools. That’s up from 23% last year. Among generations, Deloitte found Millennials and Boomers particularly inclined to deepen their doubts about the technology between 2023 and 2024. 
   
• Healthcare AI isn’t just for big hospitals. Take it from a C-suite member at a 25-bed (albeit multi-clinic) facility in rural New Mexico. While helping orient a new physician, CIO Eric Jimenez noticed the provider struggling with an ambient AI tool. “I said, ‘I know it’s one more piece of technology, but let’s add it into your workflow,’” Jimenez recalls for Health System CIO. “‘Let’s see how it improves your day to day.’” That doctor went on to see his caseload grow and, it seems, his job satisfaction rise. “He’s not staying late,” Jimenez says. “He’s not using pajama time to do that [digital] stuff. That’s kind of what we try to tackle in our environment—find use cases for artificial intelligence.”
   
• Just because you don’t hear a lot about AI in pediatric healthcare doesn’t mean it’s not a thing. Exhibit A: the second annual Children’s National Hospital-Virginia Tech Symposium on AI for Pediatric Health, held in Washington, D.C., last week. “As AI becomes integral to enhancing specialized care in pediatrics,” conference co-director Marius George Linguraru, D.Phil, told attendees, according to the Roanoke Star, “it is crucial that we approach its development with the same rigor as [we put into] training our medical specialists.” 
   
• Close to 40% of workers share sensitive work information with AI tools and without their employer’s permission. That’s according to a survey conducted by the US National Cybersecurity Alliance (NCA). Commenting on the survey for Dark Reading, NCA executive director Lisa Plaggemier says that, as employees prioritize efficiency, “they may adopt these tools without fully grasping the long-term consequences for data security and compliance, leaving organizations vulnerable to significant risks.” 
   
• Why should provider organizations use healthcare AI? Because the technology can help deliver “high-touch, highly meaningful care.” In the process, it can give adopters “a competitive advantage in a high-tech world.” That’s from an opinion piece written by Frank McGillin, CEO at The Clinic by Cleveland Clinic, and published in Healthcare IT Today. 
   
• Recent research in the news: 
   
  • Trinity College Dublin: Revolutionizing biomedical data sharing and AI-driven healthcare solutions
     
  • Osaka Metropolitan University: ChatGPT shows human-level assessment 
     
  • Universidad de Concepción: Combining AI and thermal video offers a new window into weightlifting of brain tumor MRI reports
     
• Notable FDA Approvals:
   
  • Elucid receives 510(k) clearance of PlaqueIQ image analysis software to aid cardiovascular disease assessment
     
• Funding news of note:
   
  • Rejoy Health secures $125M valuation, plans AI expansion in healthcare
     
• From AIin.Healthcare’s news partners:
   
  • Radiology Business: Startup aiming to bring robotics into interventional radiology raises $73M
     
  • Health Imaging: Younger women with breast arterial calcifications are at markedly higher risk of major cardiovascular events
     
  • Cardiovascular Business: FDA clears new software for AI-powered CCTA assessments